UPDATE: Crypto markets adjust as October FOMC rate hike odds fall to 19%
CIE News ·
FedWatch data reduced October FOMC rate hike odds to 17.7%–19%, fully pricing a December hike instead. BTC held near $83,000 as US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $681.11 million in outflows.
Crypto traders lowered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with CME FedWatch projections dropping to between 17.7% and 19% on October 11, 2026. As previously reported, digital asset desks had been positioning conservatively before the October 14 U.S. Consumer Price Index release. Futures markets have now fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate increase for December instead, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hovered at 5.24%.
Over the 24-hour cycle leading into October 11, Bitcoin (BTC) traded between $82,900 and $83,063, while Ethereum (ETH) stabilized near $2,504. The pricing shifts occurred alongside $681.11 million in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds across the preceding five trading sessions.
KuCoin reported that market expectations for an October 28 hike declined to around 19% amid expectations that the central bank will avoid rate hikes at consecutive meetings. The upcoming U.S. September CPI print is projected to show headline inflation of 3.6% to 3.7% and core inflation of 2.4% to 2.5%.