Fed's Jefferson signals patience on rates as October pause odds jump
CIE News ·
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson signaled policymakers can take time before adjusting interest rates, boosting market-implied odds of an October pause to 74%–77% and aiding Bitcoin (BTC) stability.
On October 1, 2026, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated that the central bank can take time before implementing further interest rate changes. Speaking at the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business, Jefferson explained that upcoming policy decisions should depend on economic trends and risk balances, even after backing the September rate hike that set the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
According to crypto.news, Polymarket odds for a rate increase at the October 27–28 meeting fell to 23%, implying a 77% probability that the Fed holds rates steady. Similarly, tastylive.com reported that Fed funds futures shifted to reflect a 74% chance of a pause in October, down from about 70% hike odds seen earlier in the week, alongside expectations that December remains the primary window for any subsequent move.
Jefferson noted that upside inflation risks persist due to geopolitical tensions and robust demand, though he anticipates price pressures will eventually move toward the Fed's 2% objective. As reported by tastylive.com, easing expectations for an immediate hike helped lower front-end Treasury yields and allowed Bitcoin (BTC) to rebound modestly from the lower end of its trading range.