Fed funds futures cut October rate-hike odds to near 20%
CIE News ·
Fed funds futures reduced the probability of an October rate hike to 20%–22% following soft US jobs data, according to investinglive.com and research.glassnode.com.
Fed funds futures lowered the probability of an interest-rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting to a range of 20% to 22%, falling from around 70% in late September. According to investinglive.com and research.glassnode.com, the repricing followed the September nonfarm payrolls release, which showed the US economy added 29,000 jobs compared to expectations of roughly 84,000 to 90,000. Unemployment increased to 4.2% while annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%.
The decline in hike odds occurred despite hawkish FOMC minutes on October 7 confirming unanimous support among all 19 officials for the September rate increase to 3.75%–4.00%. Investinglive.com reported that Bitcoin (BTC) held between $83,000 and $87,400 as lower rate-hike expectations reduced funding pressure on dollar-leveraged positions. Long-term borrowing costs remained elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.342% on October 1.