UPDATE: Traders price 78% chance of December Fed rate hike
CIE News ·
Update to UPDATE: Fed hold odds hit 93% as crypto derivatives open interest climbs 9.8%
Based on reporting by Cointelegraph; not yet independently confirmed.
Traders now price in a 78% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026. This follows earlier market pricing for a pause, with analysts citing Treasury yields and inflation as key drivers for Bitcoin.
Traders are now pricing in a 78% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike occurring in December 2026. As previously reported, market pricing initially pointed to a 92% to 93% likelihood that the central bank would hold rates steady in the 3.75% to 4.00% target range.
According to Cointelegraph, analysts point to hawkish signals, Treasury yields, and incoming inflation figures as key catalysts that could pressure Bitcoin (BTC). The Fed previously raised the benchmark rate to the 3.75% to 4.00% range in September before maintaining that target range.
CryptoSlate reported that consumer price index data showed headline inflation at 3.7% in September, while two-year Treasury yields climbed seven basis points to 4.872%. Rising yields and US dollar strength continue to present headwinds for BTC by increasing the appeal of interest-yielding dollar instruments.
Key facts
- 78% odds of December rate hike
- Fed target rate at 3.75%-4.00%
- September CPI inflation at 3.7%
- Two-year Treasury yield at 4.872%
Read the original at Cointelegraph