UPDATE: Hassett points to inflation data as traders see up to 87% chance of Fed rate hike
CIE News ·
Update to UPDATE: Traders price 78% chance of December Fed rate hike
Based on reporting by CryptoSlate; not yet independently confirmed.
White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett signaled that strong October inflation could prompt a Fed rate hike, as derivatives shifted the odds of a December 9 increase to between 76.5% and 87%.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated on October 29, 2026, that the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates again if October inflation data comes in high. As previously reported, traders had priced in a 78% chance of an increase, but market derivatives have now repriced the probability of a December 9 rate hike to between 76.5% and 87%.
Hassett explained in a Bloomberg Television interview that upcoming Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures prints will determine policy direction, noting that cooler data could frame elevated September numbers as temporary. Currently, headline PCE sits at 3.6% and core PCE at 3.1%, both higher than the central bank's 2.0% target. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also remarked on CNBC that a future rate increase would not necessarily represent a policy error given economic momentum.
CryptoSlate reported that the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate range at 3.75% to 4% on October 28 in a 10-2 decision. Following that meeting, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $80,500 before recovering above $81,000, trading near the $81,500 aggregate cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Key facts
- Dec 9 hike odds at 76.5%-87%
- Headline PCE at 3.6%
- Core PCE at 3.1%
- Fed funds range at 3.75%-4%
Read the original at CryptoSlate