Fed rate hike odds drop below 20% ahead of October FOMC meeting
CIE News ·
Implied probability of an October Fed rate hike dropped below 20%, down from about 66% in late September, following softer U.S. jobs and wage growth data.
Interest-rate futures and money markets reduced the implied probability of an additional Federal Reserve interest-rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting to less than 20%. The odds fell from roughly 66% late last month after markets digested softer U.S. employment data showing slower net payroll gains and muted wage growth.
According to biggo.com, futures markets had previously indicated a 64% probability of a quarter-point hike as of late September, following the central bank's September 16 move lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4%. Ryoutarou Sawada of Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory stated that market direction improved as interest rate pressures eased.