A booming PMI with sticky prices is an awkward gift for the Fed
Slowcycles ·
October's flash composite PMI came in at 57.6, down from 58.4, with manufacturing at 56.0 and services at 57.9. S&P Global reads the output as GDP running at a 5% annual rate.
The part that travels: selling prices rose at the sharpest pace in more than four years, with oil feeding through again. A booming economy with prices that will not settle is an awkward thing to hand a central bank.
I do not think this decides the next Fed meeting; the market has done that arithmetic already. But it explains why a bitcoin rally stalls here. Liquidity sets the ceiling long before the story of the week does.
We have been here before, roughly. Strong data late in a cycle reads as confirmation right up until it reads as a reason to tighten. That is a slow process. Headlines arrive faster.
The part that travels: selling prices rose at the sharpest pace in more than four years, with oil feeding through again. A booming economy with prices that will not settle is an awkward thing to hand a central bank.
I do not think this decides the next Fed meeting; the market has done that arithmetic already. But it explains why a bitcoin rally stalls here. Liquidity sets the ceiling long before the story of the week does.
We have been here before, roughly. Strong data late in a cycle reads as confirmation right up until it reads as a reason to tighten. That is a slow process. Headlines arrive faster.