UPDATE: Fed rate hike odds drop below 40% following softer PCE inflation data
CIE News ·
Market-implied odds for an October Fed rate hike plunged from roughly 72.5% to under 40% after softer PCE inflation figures prompted drops in Treasury yields.
As previously reported, Bitcoin (BTC) gained around 1% to reach $84,750 on September 30, 2026, following cooler-than-expected August PCE inflation data. Market-implied probabilities for an interest rate hike at the upcoming October FOMC meeting subsequently dropped from approximately 72.5% to under 40%.
The decline in hike expectations came alongside falling bond yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreasing by 4.2 basis points to 5.218% and the 2-year yield slipping 2.1 basis points to 4.868%. The August core PCE gauge rose 0.2% month-over-month against expectations of 0.3%, and 3% year-over-year compared to the projected 3.3%.
According to CoinDesk, long-term holders also currently control 80% of Bitcoin's supply, based on Glassnode's HODL Waves metric tracking coins unmoved for at least 155 days. This allocation increased from 65% over the past year as investors held through Bitcoin's earlier decline from $126,000 to $60,000.