UPDATE: Crypto lingers near lows as October Fed rate hike odds reach 47%
CIE News ·
Update to US 10-year Treasury yields reach 24-year high above 5.3% as inflation beats forecasts
Confirmed by 2 independent news outlets.
Bitcoin traded near $81,000 to $82,000 on October 18, 2026, as hot inflation data and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty pushed market odds of an October interest rate hike up to 47%.
Cryptocurrency markets held near multi-week lows on October 18, 2026, with Bitcoin (BTC) hovering between $81,000 and $82,000 while Ethereum (ETH) dropped 1.54% to $2,381.72. The pressure follows earlier reports of hot U.S. inflation figures that drove benchmark Treasury yields to multi-decade peaks. Sentiment weakened further as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide forward guidance or rule out additional rate hikes prior to the October 27–28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, leaving the target range uncertain at 3.75% to 4.00%.
Market expectations for an interest rate hike shifted sharply following the release of September inflation data, which showed consumer prices rose 3.7% year-over-year and wholesale prices climbed 6.3%. Data from Polymarket and CME FedWatch showed the probability of an October rate increase climbed between 41.5% and 47%, while LSEG data reported by CryptoSlate also showed odds reaching roughly 47%. Concurrently, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose above 5.10%, continuing to create headwinds for non-yielding digital assets.
Key facts
- BTC at $81,000–$82,000
- ETH at $2,381.72
- October hike odds up to 47%
- 10-year yields above 5.10%